Times Fact Outbreak Report – Lockdown relaxations further pushes India’s COVID-19 peak to September 03

Times Fact Outbreak Report – Lockdown relaxations further pushes India’s COVID-19 peak to September 03

Lockdown relaxations further pushes India’s COVID-19 peak to September 03

                       ~ Latest projections by the Times Fact-India Outbreak Report indicates that India is set to hit a peak of 9.86                                     lakh active cases on September 03 according to most likely scenario and as per SEIR model the peak is                                            projected at 10.15 lakh active cases on September 01~

                       ~ The new COVID-19 hotspots, Pune and Bengaluru are exhibiting worrying trends. ~

Mumbai, July 29, 2020: Following the implementation of lockdown relaxations to revive the nation’s economy, several states recorded a surge in cases, which has further pushed India’s COVID-19 peak to September 03. Tracking the coronavirus pandemic in India for the past several months, Times Fact-India Outbreak Report, released its latest projections and highlights that India is set to hit a peak of 9.86 lakh active cases on September 03 according to most likely scenario and as per SEIR model the peak is projected at 10.15 lakh active cases on September 01. The report shows that following India’s peak, daily active case counts will decline by November 17, thereby establishing India’s recovery from COVID-19. This was earlier projected to end by mid-October.

The study shows that the easing of mobility restrictions has led to abandoning of safety protocols and significantly contributing to India’s peak being pushed. A continued failure to practise social distancing could very well skew India’s coronavirus curve further to the right and upwards, yielding a higher peak, and more distant end date, indicates the report.

Times Fact-India Outbreak Report: Key takeaways

1. R0 or the basic reproduction number/rate, for India is slowly going down to 1.63 from 1.69 in last 20 days.
2. All the major states except Kerala, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi, and Haryana, still shows an upward trend with R0 close to 1.5.
3. The Southern states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu continue to exhibit worrying COVID-19 trends.
4. While Mumbai has put the worst behind, the new COVID-19 hotspots are Bengaluru and Pune.
5. Chennai, Bengaluru, Thane and Pune still shows an upward trend with R0 close to 1.9 and R0 for all other major cities is still above 1.6 but showing a slow downward trend.
6. Active cases of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have been growing rapidly with 10 and 12 days doubling time respectively.
7. 31% of the active cases in India is from Maharashtra, however the average growth rate is 3% (7 days average).
8. The Eastern States including West Bengal could emerge as trouble spots in the event if the trend continues.

Times Fact-India Outbreak Report: State and City Wise Projections For details on the study findings and i

For details on the study findings and insights, visit – https://www.timesnownews.com/times-facts 

Methodology: Led by insights and efficacy, Times Fact India Outbreak Report a joint endeavour by Times Network and global data and digital consulting firm Protiviti, has achieved an accuracy rate of 96% for active cases for its previous projections. The report showcases several pertinent data points which includes India’s possible peak points, state & city wise projections and active cases over a period of time and report follows a sophisticated and vigorous mathematical modelling. Parsed by reputed data scientists and quantitative experts, Times Fact India Outbreak Report is based on two models, The Time Series Model, which involves factors in data across time periods in other countries affected by Covid-19 in

addition to two polynomial regression models adapted to Indian data, and the Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered (SEIR) model which is based on an estimation of a reproduction rate of the epidemic. Drawing critical information from central government data, state government bulletins, and daily updates provided by the Health Ministry, the report is a holistic COVID -19 projection for the nation.

Disclaimer: The COVID-19 Pandemic, is rapidly evolving, with new findings and insights being discovered daily. Stories based on the research document contains the observations and conclusions arrived at by Protiviti and Times Network basis the data and information examined and relied. Stories based on this document do not constitute or claim to serve as an advisory for any medical, safety or regulatory action and cannot be referred and relied in any disputes for challenging any other claims, reports, analysis of third parties on similar subject.

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Protiviti is a Global data and digital consulting firm that delivers deep expertise, objective insights, a tailored approach and unparalleled collaboration to help leaders confidently face the future. Through its network of more than 85 offices in over 25 countries, Protiviti and its independently owned Member Firms provide clients with consulting solutions in finance, technology, operations, data analytics, governance, risk and internal audit. Named to the 2019 Fortune 100 Best Companies to Work For® list, Protiviti has served more than 60 percent of Fortune 1000® and 35 percent of Fortune Global 500® companies. The firm also works with smaller, growing companies, including those looking to go public, as well as with government agencies. In India, Protiviti ‘s member firm (Protiviti India Member Pvt. Ltd.) is a leading provider of business consulting, internal audit, risk management, technology, forensic and fraud investigation, data analytics, digital transformation, and transaction services. Protiviti member firms are separate and independent legal entities, are not agents of other firms in the Protiviti network, and have no authority to obligate or bind other firms in the Protiviti network.

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